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Internal research projects - year 2014

Project No.: 1281

Project title:

Estimation of economic results in agriculture with low or null information on development in predicted year based on FADN (Hloušková)

Head of project:

Ing. Zuzana Hloušková

Staff:

Ing. Michaela Lekešová, Ing. Martina Harvilíková, Ing. Věra Vrkočová, Ing. Eduard Slížka

Objective:

To upgrade a tool used for estimating of the annual economic performance of the agricultural in the Czech Republic based on FADN database resulting in new method of income calculation without any or low information on the agricultural development (included production, costs and subsidies).
Component of the project is an estimation of 2014 economic results in 3Q of the year (it means more than one year before the final results are published) and simulation of the scenarios of 2015 results.

Methodology, assumptions, sources:

  • Use of the methodological output of the IVP project in 2013 to define new approach to reach given objectives.
  • To analyse all processes as individual areas, including the software requirements for certain calculations and its update.
  • Construction of an integrated system for acquisition and processing of external information, particularly partial cost estimates, and production and subsidy components of income. Determination of the estimation method and testing of the proposed procedure.
  • Estimate the income in agriculture in 2014, identification of scenarios in agriculture in 2015 through the combination of expected trends in production, costs and subsidies and forecast of the agriculture development in 2015.

Outputs and their use:

  • New method of output estimate (low or null information on predicted year).
  • List of external information resources (estimate of prices, revenues, costs and subsidies).
  • Estimate the income of agriculture in 2014.
  • Forecast of the economic results of agriculture in 2015 in several variants according to defined scenarios.
  • Updated software utilized for alternative FADN calculations.
  • Final report, presentations and article in a scientific journal.
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