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Internal research projects - year 2014

Project No.: 1277

Project title:

The development of mathematical models for predicting the impacts of agrarian policy options on economic and environmental aspects of agriculture (Foltýn)

Head of project:

RNDr. Ivan Foltýn, CSc.

Staff:

Ing. Ida Zedníčková, Ing. Jaroslav Humpál, Mgr. Ondřej Chaloupka, Ing. Václav Voltr, CSc., Ing. Jakub Kučera, Ing. Marie Trantinová, Ph.D., doc. Ing. Tomáš Doucha, CSc.

Objective:

The aim of the internal scientific project (IVP) is to further develop the mathematical model apparatus for predicting the impact of agricultural policies on agricultural enterprises and the agricultural sector as a whole in the planning period 2015-2020 of the CAP. Basic equipment of this apparatus consists of mathematical models FARMA-4 (optimization model for prediction of the economic and ecological problems of the farm), FARMA-5 (spatial optimization model for prediction of the economy and ecology of farms and the agricultural sector), RENT-4 (econometric model prediction for profitability of agricultural commodities), TF (optimization model for predictions of economic and environmental aspects of farm types) and SZÚ (model prediction for yearly estimate of Economic Account for Agriculture). The above mentioned mathematical model apparatus is designed especially for top management of the agricultural sector (Ministry of Agriculture) and consultancy department for all farm types. Developing models will be based on the implementation of both traditional and non-traditional agro-environmental farming practices (content and nutrient emissions from agriculture, economic aspects of intensive and extensive farming, etc.), application of agricultural biomass as renewable energy sources, implementation assumptions, limitations and conditions of future versions of agrarian policy and specification of the conditions associated with the definition of farm types, etc.

Methodology, assumptions, sources:

Improving mathematical modeling system will be based on the most efficient use of scientific research results in the following areas:

  • new results of the Sample Survey of the Cost Rate of Agricultural Products yearly monitoring by the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information (ÚZEI);
  • agricultural norms and technological processes in agriculture (Kavka et al.);
  • technological procedures in agriculture (VÚZT);
  • determining the amount of costs attributable to the agro-environmental measures, which are considered to PRV, especially extreme situations leading to the abandonment of agricultural land;
  • economic and environmental analysis of farming based on BPEJ system (Voltr et al.);
  • analysis of erosion hazard and erosion of organic practices in the farming farms;
  • evaluation of reducing water erosion after the introduction of GAEC 2 and new knowledge about changes in rainfall conditions in the Czech Republic (results of the project TA ČR);
  • analysis of greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (results of the project TA ČR);
  • balance of nutrients N, P, K in farmland (results of scientific research projects VÚRV);
  • valuation losses of nutrients from agricultural land due to the unequal balance of nutrients;
  • technological procedures for livestock nutrition and animal nutrition models (AgroKonzulta Žamberk).

The project IVP will be addressed further to development of BPEJ system and its implementation into the model FARMA-5:

  • extension of the BPEJ meeting the criteria for evaluating any combination of the crops on the land;
  • modeling of economic and technological relations management in relation to before-crops;
  • effective solutions of the model results FARMA-5 into the BPEJ system;
  • assessment of the economic impacts of the inclusion of environmentally justified tracks crops using the model FARMA-5;
  • evaluation of model results about erosion hazard and design cropping patterns according to BPEJ system including the effect of erosion.

Models will be enhanced by the possibility of prediction of trends enriched with seasonal ingredients (seasonal trend forecasting). This method allows to display the previous-year fluctuations in the data prediction. Developed and improved model apparatus will be used for:

  • thematic tasks for Ministry of Agriculture focused on the influence of agrarian policy impacts on agriculture of the Czech Republic;
  • development of advice for farms Czech Republic;
  • economic and environmental analysis of selected farms;
  • prediction of possible future impacts of agricultural policy in the field of direct payments and PRV.

Outputs and their use:

  • Articles in peer-reviewed journals or impacted.
  • Presentations at scientific conferences.
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