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Internal research projects - year 2016

Project No.: 1277

Project title:

Mathematical modeling of economic development, agriculture and agrarian sector (Foltýn)

Responsible solver:

RNDr. Ivan Foltýn, CSc.

Aim of the project:

The goal for the year 2016 is to continue in developing mathematical models of for predicting the impact of agrarian policy on the future economic development of agricultural commodities, the economy of selected types of farms and selected agricultural regions for the period 2015-2020. The effort of researchers is to involve in the solution as well as new procedures and methods which during solving IVP occur.

Summary of the project:

Reaction on the demands of the Minister of Agriculture (MoA) to provide current information on economic development of the sector caused in Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information (IAEI) a new look at existing procedures. These were reflected in the solving of Internal Research Project 1277 in 2016 - monitoring the current development of agriculture and consequently of the whole agrarian sector with the creation of the current model predictions and their continuous refinement in the regime of so-called "express economy".
Chapter 1 is devoted to the modelling of the economy of agricultural commodities. There are described models RENT 4 (revision of standard model of profitability of agricultural commodities), AGRPOL-1 (new model of analysis of supports of agrarian policy related to model RENT-4), source databases: survey NAKL (annual cost survey done by IAAE about the economics of agricultural commodities in time series 1995-2016), database BASELINE (database IAEI about production-economic indicators of the resort in time series from 1995-2016 for support of mathematical models created in IAEI).
Chapter 2 is devoted to the calculations and predictions of the development of economics of agriculture – so-called Economics Account of Agriculture (EAA). The chapter describes the model ZSP-P1 in terms of the methodology of its work and the results of model processing.
Chapter is devoted to the problematics of mathematical modelling of agrarian sector (Agriculture, Food industry, Retail, Food consumption). It describes the model AGRO-2014 (mathematical model of partial market equilibrium based on Input / Output method of Leontieff), with following structure: section ZEM (production of agricultural raw material), section POTR (production of food products CZ-NACE 10.1-10.9 a 11), section OBCH (retail with food) and section SPOB (food consumption recalculated per inhabitant) in quantitative and value terms for the 2014. The scope of the model range represents the I / O matrix of about 1 250 rows and columns.
Chapter 4 is devoted to the possibilities of mathematical modelling of global position of the agricultural sector, food sector and further related sectors (downstream and upstream sectors of national economy (NE)). To quantify the position of agriculture and related industries following indicators are used: (1) the share of agriculture GDP (or other sectors of the agrarian sector) in the total GDP of NE, (2) the share of employment in agriculture (and / or other sectors) on total employment in NE. There were created two models: Model HDP-1 and ZAM-1, based on the NE CZSO balance (based on the I / O Leotieff model with a range of 100 branches of NE). Models HDP-1 and ZAM-1 enables to calculate the indicators (1) and (2) as a result of expected changes of the scope of agriculture and other industries that cause changes in the balance of NE.
Chapter 5 is devoted to food consumption analysis and monitoring of the development in the grocery market in 2014. The analyzes are based on data of company GfK (food purchases by consumers) for the year under review. The results include volumes and prices of food purchases according to the sales formats (hypermarkets, discounters, supermarkets, smaller shops, etc.) and to other indicators.
Chapter 6 is devoted to the revision of RDN (recommended dose of nutrition) and RDF (recommended dose of food), which were updated for Czech consumers for the first time since 90 years. The results were reviewed by an optimization model of VYZIVA-1 (which has been developed in recent years under the project of the Ministry of Interior "Nutrition of population in crisis situations").
Chapter 7 is devoted to evaluation of the effects of investment projects from Rural Development Programme (RDP) using Cost-Benefit-Analysis method (CBA). There were elaborated 2 models: CBA-1 (model of economic evaluation of the project) and CBA-2 (model of socio-economic impact assessment of the project on the environment) for the current evaluation of applications for investment support from RDP within the MoA.
Chapter 8 a 9 include elaboration of the pilot project "monitoring food market" based on GfK survey results on the example of 2 selected commodities (butter, fermented dairy products) for 2012-2014. The results include mainly food purchases in promo actions and outside, proportions of Czech and foreign purchases of food (according to the CZ barcode) purchases by socio-demographic breakdowns etc.
All chapters are supplemented by the illustration of the described mathematical-model tools and other methods and procedures in a very detailed tables that documents the functioning of the described methodological means.

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